Thursday, May 13, 2004

Elections '04: So how long it will last and other thoughts

From the first looks at the moment, mid-term seems imminent. Which would be pretty ironic considering NDA will be able to say we will provide you stability and Congress would not be able to. See change. Actually first change in this long series has already occured. Earlier it used to be Congress vs Anti-Congress. Now it is more BJP vs Anti-BJP. Coming to this elections, I am not sure how much a car with two wheels each of Congress and Left will run. Somewhere in between one of the tyres is going to go flat. One of the major reasons for this being, this would not be a combination of equals. Congress is on resurgence and is going to act the arrogant self it is, which leaves nothing for anyone else. Parties supporting it from outside and inside will stand to gain little unless a more solid alliance is notched up, like BSP in UP and MP. Actually, such an alliance would have decimated BJP in UP and halted it in MP. Lucky for BJP it did not work out. Other likely partner is SP with 30+ seats, though currently seems unlikely. SP has always seemed interesting to me. I will write about it in detail some other day.

Elections '04: After-MATH

First Reaction. Aiyaaa. Not Congress. But basically not Sonia Gandhi. Though many a slip between cup and the lip, it seems all set to happen. Just a small look at arithmetic. Congree ~220. Left ~60. Basically that alone seals the deal. Apart from that BSP ~15 and sure other smaller entities and independents will join, in case needed.

Talking about maths, surprisingly so many states have clean sweeps or close to that. Number of states with 80% one party or front include a long list, even disallowing smaller states. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Chhattigarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttaranchal, and Assam. Phew that is a long one. The states with some competition remained Karnataka(If HDDG had joined the alliance also, would not have been like that), Maharashtra(Was thought to be sweep for Cong-NCP), Gujarat(Again a surprise), and the two states which decide who goes to Delhi, UP and Bihar.

Some trivia stuff from this elections. PM Sayeed ( Well, his initials are funny :)), lost first time since 1967. Sharad Pawar who has nursed his consitutency, Baramati, very well won by over 4 lakh votes. I think he did not even go there during elections. A lesson for others. First time Congress is wiped out of Kerala. And first time NDA opened account there! Through IFDP. Well something -ve for congress and +ve for NDA.